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Bernard Hickey from interest.co.nz on personal finance trends, mortgages, homeloan affordability, credit cards and more

Less smiling and more assassinating... please

12:45PM Tuesday October 27, 2009

John Key is typically upbeat about the signing of a free trade agreement with Malaysia and it's hard to begrudge him this achievement. He is such a cheery chap and raining on his parade seems churlish.

But I will anyway.

All three words in the phrase Free Trade Agreement (FTA) sound great, but they are rarely truly free, rarely only about trade and rarely an agreement worth much more than the paper it's written on.

New Zealand should be focusing all its limited diplomatic effort and pressure on a true free trade agreement such as the World Trade Organisation (WTO) one that is stalled in the Doha round. Part of the reason it is stalled is that the world trade and diplomatic communities are distracted doing all these FTAs.

A WTO deal is a multilateral deal that exerts global pressure on the largest economies to abide by a set of global rules. It has been the most effective driver in the amazing growth of world trade in the last decade.

FTAs are often used by the powerful to 'pick off' the weak and negotiate side deals that either entrench existing restrictions for longer or open up markets in an asymmetric way (ie one party opens up more than the other)

Key lauds this deal with Malaysia as another vital 'step change' for the New Zealand economy. He says here that: "If we're going to make a step change in the economy - certainly if we're going to lift exports as a percentage of GDP - the fastest and most effective place to target that growth is Asia."

More on the exports angle in a second, but the devil is always in the detail in these deals. Here's all the detail here in the 127 page agreement.  I invite readers to go through these with a fine tooth comb.

For example here's all the detail in the deal around alcohol imports to Malaysia  including this little line ..."however Malaysia shall, at all times, reserve its rights to the imposition of any tariffs on these products..."

The bigger issue for New Zealand's exporters right now is the high currency and a lack of access to capital for investment. The banks aren't lending, New Zealanders aren't investing in exporting and the currency is killing exporters. It's all very well having markets to export to, but the real problem is being able to produce competitively here.

What is John Key doing to rebalance the economy away from investing in property and towards investing in exporting? Not much if his initial comments on a capital gains tax or a flat tax system are anything to go by.

And what is he doing to reduce the pressure on the New Zealand dollar? His government is about to suck in NZ$40 billion worth of foreign currency over the next five years to fund its deficits, pushing up the New Zealand dollar and interest rates.

If Key was serious about helping exporters he would be freeing up resources and leveling the playing field for exporters to do their thing by slashing those deficits and broadening the tax system to include property.

Grand summits with silly shirts are fun, but they're not as useful to exporters as more investment and a lower currency. I'd like to see the 'smiling assassin' do more of the assassinating (of government budget deficits) and less of the smiling (and waving at summits).

 


Bernard Hickey

 

Pictured: John Key and Malaysian PM Najib Razak.

Comments

Ryansway

Wellington City

2:47PM Wednesday
28 October 2009

@average white guy
I agree with all your points however New Zealand need only look to Iceland and its devalued currency that is the catalyst for its success. They have pulled out of the recession and are reaping the rewards of an export led recovery.

Our politicians know the same is needed for New Zealand. Allan Bollard has maintained the only way forward for New Zealand is an export led recovery.

But they are all acting to the contrary, every time Allan Bollard opens his mouth he drops another signal to fx traders to place their sure bets.

Even the most unsophisticated fx trader can make a killing buying up NZD's. Even when the forces of nature look set to stop the NZD in its tracks, Bollard does something to give it a helping hand.

We don't need to be Nostradamus to know what Bollard will be saying on Thursday, and its time this country starts to worry why its reserve bank Governor has become so predictable.

The NZD will march past 76 after Bollard's speech on Thursday - I shouldn't know that, because if I do, every fx trader in the world will too.

A high NZD is at the root of all our economic woes and Bollard's double talk is getting very, very old!

Aleksandar

Auckland

10:04AM Wednesday
28 October 2009

I am not sure I fully support the anti-property-investmnt crusade Bernard is fronting.
Reality is that how ever much we are investing in property as a nation we are still far from any significant surpluses on the property supply side. That tells me that if we are to de-incentivise property investments through tax system overhaul we will be in fact creating a debalance and ultimately push prices up.

One other thing that is overlooked-leaky building scandal has destroyed so much wealth accumulated in property that mum-and-dad property investors will have hard time keeping themselves afloat-hit them with another tax and all of the sudden finance company colapses of last year will look as a minor blip compared to the hardship this is going to create.

If we are to promote other types of investments (which I very much support), make them more appealing and mainstream. Talked to a finance adviser recently? I did to few of them and all I can say is no wonder people are staying away from the sharemarket.
I guess that is my whole point- if we are to diversify our investment portfolio as a nation we shouldn't punish people who already made investment decisions but attract those who haven't

DamianDee

Auckland Central

9:29AM Wednesday
28 October 2009

Bernard, I largely agree with what you are saying. JK and friends are doing a bit of a slow play on tax reform etc. But we all need to be aware that National only just won over those centre voters 12 months ago. If he was to start ramming through right wing policies (i.e. flat tax etc.) then it's a great way to scare those centre voters back to Labour.

Bernard, I get the feeling it's mainly the slow pace of tax reform that is ticking you off. I agree that they could do it faster, for example the Tax Working Group could have knocked out their report in a couple of months. But doesn't National have to mirror what Australia is doing with their McLeod report, which is being tabled about the same time as the TWG.

Also, JK and Bill have given numerous speeches about taxing property. So it will definitely happen but it has to happen at a pace that is comfortable for those centre voters and aligned with Australia.

Keep the good articles coming Bernard!

AJM

Christchurch

9:28AM Wednesday
28 October 2009

Bernard,
you are using a blunderbuss in your argument. I'm sure you are aware that Malaysia is a Muslim country that has strict rules on the sale of alcohol. It should be no surprise that they have particular concern here, and we shouldn't impose our culture upon them.

At least this agreement is between two economies of similar scale. The problem with FTAs with USA or EU, is that the weak bargaining power of small economies results in unfairness. If countries such as NZ and Malaysia have fair agreements, these then raise the bar when dealing with EU and USA.

Perhaps they will eventually see the DOHA round as more acceptable instead of having all these small bilateral agreements. Let's encourage progress, however small the steps may be.

KC

Franklin

8:16AM Wednesday
28 October 2009

Quite right Bernard.

Does anyone know the real reason why John Key has done a complete flip flop on the global warming fraud and is supporting Nick Smith on his emissions trading scheme?

The rumour gaining momentum is that his advisors have told him to go along with the whole charade to pick up the female vote in Auckland and we might also get an FTA out of the US.

So there you have it, our prime minister Mr Smiley Face is prepared to prostitute this country's integrity and hide the facts from his citizens just to get an FTA with Obama.

Based on what I have been seeing of Obama and his communist style reforms our PM would do well to distance himself, not cosy up.



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