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Bernard Hickey from interest.co.nz on personal finance trends, mortgages, homeloan affordability, credit cards and more

Dear Generations X and Y: leave ASAP

11:55AM Tuesday June 23, 2009

Generations X (30-45) and Y (15-30) need to wake up and see the massive inter-generational theft happening before their eyes. Baby-boomers need to be shocked into knowing they are being shortsighted and will end up living in two retirement islands and having to visit their grandchildren overseas. Bernard Hickey writes Gen X and Y a letter. They can imagine it is a long email or text message.

Dear Generations X and Y

Did you realize the baby boomers running the country have just decided to make you poorer for decades to come so they can retire early with all the assets and high incomes?

Did you realise your taxes are going to rise and you won't be able to afford your own home? Did you know the baby-boomers are refusing to save their own money now for their retirements so they can live off your hard work?

Did you know you will be slaving away paying high taxes in your 40s and 50s to pay for their pensions and health care? Did you know you're wasting your time trying to build a family and life in New Zealand? Did you realise you have huge student loans while they received free tertiary education?

Do you realise they voted themselves Working for Families so they could have children and afford to pay the high mortgage costs of their borrowing to buy property? Do you know this cannot be afforded in the next 20-30 years?

You didn't? Let me explain.

There were two big decisions in last month's budget that guaranteed this intergenerational transfer of wealth, but they are not the only factor.

Prime Minister John Key and Finance Minister chose to abandon contributions to the New Zealand Superannuation Fund (the Cullen Fund) for the foreseeable future. Yet they also guaranteed their fellow baby-boomers (they were both born in 1961) they would keep their pensions at 66 per cent of the average wage and could still retire at the age of 65. John Key has even promised to resign if he breaks this promise.

There is another unwritten rule that no baby-boomer politician will break and that will guarantee many in generations X and Y will never be able to afford to buy a house. John Key again ruled out this month that his government would ever introduce a capital gains or land tax. Any change to the massive tax break in favour of residential property investment would immediately reduce the wealth of baby boomers who were able to buy cheaply in the 1990s and early 2000s. They will never give this up voluntarily and they will continue to vote for politicians who support that view.

So the two budget decisions, the unwritten rule on capital gains/land taxes and the decade of slow growth forecast by Treasury will combine to cement in a massive transfer of wealth. There are other forces at work here. Our banks are congenitally conservative about lending. They will lend up to 100 per cent against the value of land and buildings, but are reluctant to lend to back the business ideas and entrepreneurial vigour of Generations X and Y.

The dream of baby boomers is to keep buying rental properties and renting them out to generations X and Y. They can even afford to make losses on them because they can claim the tax losses against their personal incomes and make their money back with capital gains. That baby boomer dream was looking wobbly earlier this year when prices fell 10 per cent from their peak. A smidgen of light appeared for Generations X and Y. But it seems those hopes are now dashed because the banks are back lending to the baby boomers, who are even more convinced now that property is their only hope because of the collapse of finance companies and the stock market.

Now you can look forward to steadily rising taxes over the next 30 years, particularly from 2020 onwards, to pay for the increased costs of an expensive universal pay-as-you-go pension scheme and much higher universal 'free' health care costs. You will pay as they go into the retirement homes.

You could try to overturn the baby boomer bias in our political system by voting them out, but you'll fail because there are too many of them and you don't vote much.

Your only choice is to migrate as soon as the global economy starts recovering and the jobs become available again.

This will be the best revenge you can get. They will have to watch their grandchildren grow up by email and the occasional flying visit.

I'm not kidding. Leave ASAP.

 

Kind regards

 

Bernard Hickey (42)

P.S. The other option is to leave and earn enough money working overseas to afford to come home to buy a house. That's what I did. But will your children be around to have their children (your grandchildren) here?

 

 

Comments

Rob Thumath

papatoetoe

3:27PM Wednesday
24 June 2009

I'm a baby boomer, and I remember when we were told that the age of automation would mean we could all work 2 hours aday while machines did the work for us!
Now both parents need to work 50+hrs wk operating those machines.
Instead of capital gains tax, I would have thought more rigorous interpretation of present tax laws would cover it. If the definition of a "business" is the intent to produce a taxable income, and plainly a property investment on negative yield has demonstrated little to no possibility of producing a taxable income, then it isn't a business. Is it? Unless the profit planned is the one received when the property is sold. At which point under current tax laws it is taxable. If that is the intent when starting this business.
The other point, about all the houses being owned by baby boomers thus being unavailable, seems to miss the point that they are due to be unloaded as part of the investment realisation. At which point with the age imbalance there is possible/likely to be an oversupply and subsequent drop in price.
No question that same age imbalance is going to cause huge problems

Jason

United Kingdom

3:27PM Wednesday
24 June 2009

Nice article Bernard, always an interesting read.
And as usual some interesting comments, although some do sound as though they feel victimised.
As few points if I may (P.S. I am Kiwi, and I will return home eventually - hopefully)
Peter in Howick, a person only needs to pays taxes in NZ for 10yrs before being elegible for the full pension - NOT 40 years. And we are the only country in the world this generous.
Rhys in St Heliers,have you heard of dollar cost averaging? or maybe 'buy low and sell high'? or maybe buy when others are fearful, sell when others are greedy! Now has been the time for the NZ super fund to buy because it is a long-term investor. It makes no sense to stop buying when markets are cheap and then to start buying again when they are expensive!
The reason we will struggle to buy a home is not because we are lazy as someone suggests but because homes are a higher multiple of earnings than in the past. That is not our fault.
The baby-boomers have pushed the prices up and they are the ones who drove the lending criteria down, not us!
I can't wait for my generation to control parliament and take control of the Cullen fund.

stim

Mt Eden

3:27PM Wednesday
24 June 2009

Totally agree with your diagnosis Bernard.
Unfortunately you will find very similar dynamics at work in many of the western allies who fought in WWII, and who produced the baby boom that followed.
For example, Blair & Brown comprehensively stuffed future generation's finance in Britain (which I left behind with similar feelings not very long ago) after the right wing opened the door to these kind of approaches during my childhood (yes, I'm GenX). Where to go? Emigrating once with this attitude only leads to continued dissatisfaction, always looking for greener grass.
There is no panacea for this. The only obvious thing to me is that the demographic curve in your graph demonstrates that there will be a day when Capital Gains will be applied to property investment, as the young become more powerful in political numbers. Extrapolate dates against this and you have a fairly reliable prediction (give or take 5 years) of a further property crash, and can avoid buying in the run up to that point.
Ignore the hype and find a way around the current system of property-based, delusional wealth creation. Each to his own solution.

ShQQta

Glenfield

3:26PM Wednesday
24 June 2009

Bernard, you need to start thinking instead of recycling buzzwords. Tired ones at that. Those so-called boomers are mature adults and connected members of extended social and family networks.
Most are not selfish, and many will continue some sort of taxable work-and-income activity long into their "retirement". They will help out Gen X and Gen Y, their children and grandchildren, by subsidizing university education, helping with home starts, or maybe just childminding, whenever they are able. When they die, they will leave their wealth and houses to their kids.
As a so-called Gen X'er, I am very happy that my boomer Mother both has a debt-free property and is eligible for a pension. We are all in this together, Bernard; we more than competing economic units fighting for resources in a zero-sum game.

KP

Roseneath, Wellington City

3:26PM Wednesday
24 June 2009

The line is from the government is that increased immigration will sort this problem. However, it looks like there will be few places to leave for as this is a rich and emerging country global problem. See these two articles.
This one is a review of a book, but does outline some of the issues the world faces.
http:/www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displaystory.cfm?subjectid=987105&story_id=12847201
The second is a outline of what we are in for in our old age
http:/www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displaystory.cfm?subjectid=987105&story_id=11849226



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